Should Private Expectations Concern Central Bankers?

When Should Central Bankers Be Fired?

In recent years, a number of countries have changed their central banking institutions. Often these reforms involve granting long terms of office to central bankers. This threatens to limit the extent to which the central bank can be held accountability. Dismissal rules can help ensure accountability, and, in the presence of inßation shocks, the socially optimal commitment policy is supported b...

Should the individual voting records of central bankers be published?

Central Bankers and Uncertainty

For the majority of my professional life, I have had the good fortune to be simultaneously involved both as a participant in, and as an academic observer of, central banks. Today, and as is suitable for this occasion and audience, I shall be primarily emphasising my academic observations. Nevertheless, my study of central bank behaviour is inevitably informed and coloured by my previous years a...

Paper Autonomy, Private Ambition: Theory and Evidence Linking Central Bankers’ Careers and Economic Performance

Central bankers’ careers are shown to influence inflation outcomes. I present two theories in which careers explain central bank behavior, develop them in a game theoretic model, and test them using a comprehensive new data set of central bankers’ career backgrounds which spans twenty rich democracies and half a century. Career experiences vary considerably over this sample, and not only mould ...

Discussion of Inflation Measurement for Central Bankers

Robert Hill has made a valuable contribution to the conference in a number of respects. First, he has provided a succinct and thought-provoking discussion of the broad range of issues relevant to measuring infl ation. Second, he has highlighted a number of developments that could potentially alter the way in which we measure infl ation. For example, as Robert has explained, a reduction in the m...